Analysis of the most recent Census Bureau data
The Census Bureau released its most recent population estimates yesterday, and the data tells a story that contradicts the prevailing narrative about American migration. Connecticut added nearly 109,000 residents over the past five years—continuing a growth trajectory that began in 2021—while the much-hyped Florida and Texas migration boom has collapsed.
For those of us who care deeply about Connecticut, the message is clear: our state's fundamentals are strong, and the data backs it up. LFG!
Connecticut: Steady Growth Amid National Uncertainty
Connecticut's population grew from 3.58m in 2020 to 3.69m in 2025, a gain of 108,853 residents. This marks a significant turnaround from the population losses the state experienced prior to the pandemic.
The mechanics of Connecticut's growth reflect a familiar pattern for our state: we have an aging population that produces domestic out-migration, but international migration more than compensates.
| Component | 5-Year Total |
|---|---|
| International Migration | +109,734 |
| Domestic Migration | -6,711 |
| Natural Change (births minus deaths) | +6,086 |
| Net Change | +108,853 |
We lose about 1,300 people per year on average to other states. Looking at overall trends, we tend to gain young families, principally from NY and MA, and lose folks when they retire who are weather or tax optimizing (or both). While I'd prefer to keep everyone, from an economic development perspective I'll take the trade - we are gaining folks at the beginning of their earnings journey and losing them towards its end.
International in-migration—skilled workers, entrepreneurs, families seeking opportunity in our strong economy—has really been the engine of our growth. In 2024 alone, Connecticut welcomed over 35,000 new residents from abroad, our highest total in years.
The Florida and Texas Boom Is Over
Here's the story that deserves more attention: the Sunbelt migration surge has collapsed.
Florida's domestic migration peaked at 310,892 in 2022. By 2025, it had fallen to 22,517—a 93% decline. Texas saw a 69% drop from its 2022 peak. Arizona, Georgia, Tennessee—every Sunbelt state that was supposedly "winning" the migration wars has seen dramatic slowdowns.
| State | Peak Year | Peak Value | 2025 Value | % Decline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 2022 | 310,892 | 22,517 | -93% |
| Texas | 2022 | 218,840 | 67,299 | -69% |
| Arizona | 2021 | 84,233 | 31,107 | -63% |
| Georgia | 2022 | 79,102 | 27,333 | -65% |
What's driving the reversal? The factors that made these states attractive—lower costs, available housing—have eroded. Housing prices in Florida and Texas surged. Insurance costs in Florida have become prohibitive. The quality-of-life calculus has shifted.
Here's what makes this particularly interesting: Florida and Texas are still growing, but they've become almost entirely dependent on international migration to do it.
In 2021, domestic migration accounted for 63% of Florida's net migration gains. By 2025, it's down to 11%. International migration now provides 89% of Florida's migration-driven growth.
| Year | FL Domestic | FL International | Intl Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 253,220 | 46,857 | 16% |
| 2022 | 310,892 | 287,845 | 48% |
| 2023 | 183,646 | 333,449 | 64% |
| 2024 | 58,411 | 283,664 | 83% |
| 2025 | 22,517 | 178,674 | 89% |
There's a certain irony here. States whose political leaders have built brands on restrictionist immigration rhetoric are now almost entirely reliant on international migration for population growth. If federal immigration policy were to tighten significantly, their growth model would collapse.
Connecticut, by contrast, has been transparent about the role international migration plays in our economy. We've invested in welcoming infrastructure. The difference is we're honest about it.
The Rust Belt Reversal
The final story worth noting: the Rust Belt is experiencing a genuine turnaround.
Ohio went from losing 32,482 residents to other states in 2021 to gaining 11,926 in 2025—a swing of more than 44,000 people. Michigan flipped from -28,290 to +1,796. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana—all showing substantial improvement.
| State | 2021 | 2025 | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | -32,482 | +11,926 | +44,408 |
| Michigan | -28,290 | +1,796 | +30,086 |
| Minnesota | -14,970 | +8,300 | +23,270 |
| Wisconsin | -18,299 | +6,984 | +25,283 |
These are complete reversals in migration patterns. The narrative that Americans are fleeing the industrial Midwest for the Sunbelt is no longer accurate.
What This Means for Connecticut
The data confirms what we've been seeing on the ground: Connecticut is a state people want to live in. Our schools, healthcare, infrastructure, and quality of life continue to attract residents—particularly from abroad.
Our challenge isn't population decline. It's ensuring we have the housing, transit, and economic opportunity to accommodate growth. Those are good problems to have.
The states that spent the past five years celebrating their population "wins" are now watching those gains evaporate. Connecticut kept its head down, invested in fundamentals, and the results speak for themselves.
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates (NST-EST2025-ALLDATA), released January 27, 2026.